While we prize film study above all when evaluating prospects, we also try to incorporate analytics and metrics into our process. Any information we think we can obtain that actually correlates with determining whether a prospect will succeed or fail in the NFL is good information.
Category: Draft
Wide Receiver Prospects, Part 4: Conclusions By Conference
(See parts one, two, and three.) I already covered the SEC and Pac-12 in two earlier posts. Now I intend to review the receivers drafted from the other four major conferences since 2000 in detail (the data is in part three), and see if we can find any patterns here. (Stats are through week 6 of 2016, […]
Wide Receiver Prospects, Part 3: Using Hard Data
(See part one and part two.) Upon reviewing all the data across the major conferences, I decided the only way I could trust my evaluations of success or failure was to set an objective standard. Like I mentioned last time, I’m using PFR’s “Approximate Value” stat to compare– comparing the expected AV of a draft […]
Wide Receiver Prospects, Part 2: What About the Other Conferences?
In Part 1 of this study, I looked at Pac-12 receivers drafted in the first three rounds since 2000 and concluded their hit rate was astonishingly low. However, such a conclusion must be verified, and so I decided to compare the Pac-12’s hit rate with that of the other conferences.
Wide Receiver Prospects, Part 1: Is there a “USC Curse”?
I’ve heard a lot of chatter about the “USC receiver curse” in recent years. how highly-regarded receivers from the school have struggled at the NFL level. With Nelson Agholor being talked about as though he was struggling to adapt, and JuJu Smith-Schuster potentially a high draft selection next year, I decided to do a little research […]
Draft Thoughts Part 4 of 4: Winning Is Not The Incentive
[ Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 3 | Part 4 ] At the end of part 3, I said I’d attempt to address why teams don’t examine their processes more closely, why they don’t try to refine or improve them. I think the answer comes down to how decisions are made in the NFL. I […]
Draft Thoughts Part 3 of 4: These Are Not The Traits You’re Looking For
[ Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 3 | Part 4 ] I’ve made notes throughout the first few parts of this mega-post regarding players who fell in the draft despite their obvious talent, notes that said I would address in part 3. Well, I apologize. Part 3 ran over 4500 words, so I broke it into two parts […]
Draft Thoughts Part 2 of 4: On the Cleveland Browns and Analytics
[ Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 3 | Part 4 ] I was quite excited for what the Cleveland Browns might do in this year’s draft. I watched a lot more baseball in the 1990s and 2000s, and was well aware of (and paid close attention to) Billy Beane’s work with the Oakland A’s. […]
Draft Thoughts Part 1 of 4: A Handful of Team Observations
[ Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 3 | Part 4 ] So it turns out I have a lot more to say about this year’s NFL Draft than I thought I did. In my first draft of this article, this was my opening paragraph: When enough is said before the draft– and I’ve been saying […]
Rip It Up And Start Again: Double-Blockbuster Seven-Round Mock
I was working on turning that four-round mock into a seven-round mock… and then the Eagles trade broke yesterday. So, we have two blockbuster trades to the top, presumably for QBs; hence the “Double Blockbuster Mock.” And, as the title suggests… we’re going the whole way. Seven rounds. All seven and we’ll watch them fall! (RIP, Prince. […]
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