winston, coates, harold would probably be a fair bit lower on my board but won’t get to enough prospects to make one. Surprised melvin ended up that low on your board. Won’t get into enough film to quibble about too much more (ER lot is lots of guys with both good and poor traits, it’s just basically arguing what you prefer). I figure a lot of boards look different more than most years–last year was mostly arguing over which stud was better to draft, this year’s gonna have a good chunk of busts. I expect several surprises on day 1 of the draft (Bryce petty to the saints at 31? one time?) Reply
6 comments on The Big Board
winston, coates, harold would probably be a fair bit lower on my board but won’t get to enough prospects to make one. Surprised melvin ended up that low on your board. Won’t get into enough film to quibble about too much more (ER lot is lots of guys with both good and poor traits, it’s just basically arguing what you prefer). I figure a lot of boards look different more than most years–last year was mostly arguing over which stud was better to draft, this year’s gonna have a good chunk of busts. I expect several surprises on day 1 of the draft (Bryce petty to the saints at 31? one time?)
I really like Winston’s game. I honestly considered having him #1. Coates is a guy I’m concerned about as far as consistency and hands, but he has also shown enough ability to make difficult catches that I’m less concerned than I ordinarily am (as opposed to, say, Breshad Perriman). Harold is a guy with NFL athleticism but not really much in the way of production; those guys tend to go around the 2nd, before guys with more production but questionable athleticism. (I’ve been researching 3-cone times for edge rushers lately, and that seems to be important; Harold’s 7.07 is strong. Shane Ray put up a 7.7 at his pro day.)
Melvin Gordon is a guy I have some concerns about how he can perform independent of situation. If he goes somewhere like, say, Dallas at 27, I think he will thrive and reach his Jamaal Charles potential. But Todd Gurley is a guy I think will thrive anywhere and can be the centerpoint of an offense– honestly can’t think of a RB prospect as talented as him since Adrian Peterson.
Dear God, no Bryce Petty at 31. Brett Hundley I could live with. But Petty? Not before pick 100 or so.
Glad to see Illinois State and Shag finally on the list. (I do like Shag as he can do everything for a NFL team but because FCS I’m just hoping he gets a real opportunity, both his TD’s in the FCS title game should’ve been picks (one was ridiculous) but he can block, plays on special teams, and can be a decent receiver (with the name you wouldn’t think he’s athletic but his metrics were in line with the top of the class) a classic 5th-7th round guy (I would rate him higher but I can’t see him going higher) who I would draft over Pruitt but I’m biased so… There’s several other guys from Illinois State that could get drafted but are all borderline for me. (though emory hunt aka fballgameplan had a bunch including 2 2nd round grades)
mid 2nd round on this board looks like bust city. (I do not agree with Ray below Harold, Ray’s a better pass rusher and a tougher player)
Byron Jones is going to go higher than that surely in this draft. (though I do not know where I’d rate him personally as I haven’t seen him) Eagles were at his pro day instead of Florida State’s was pretty telling imo. (not just jones is going early but eagles are seemingly certainly taking a CB in the first two rounds)
DGB is the most likely of your top 32 not to be taken in the top 32 imo. He has to be so raw in route running that I wouldn’t expect much if anything in year 1 and off field stuff. If Collins isn’t a coverage safety it’s tough to take him in round 1 for today’s game. Also not a fan of Eddie Goldman just because a guard was pushing him back at the POA in the game I watched and I guess some people think he can be a 3-4 NT, I don’t see that and he’s not much of a pass rusher so… would bump erving/johnson/ and either fisher or shaq thompson up into the top 32. Like all those guys (erving as an interior OL at least) from what I’ve heard about them.
Don’t have much on Shag beyond a highlight tape and Matt Waldman’s report. I think athletic TEs are good flyers in a spot like that.
The thing with Ray vs. Harold is that one has a higher ceiling but also a lower floor. Harold’s athleticism means he could in theory be a #1 pass rusher someday which I don’t believe Ray will ever be. However, Ray is more ready to contribute right away, and his high-motor style of play means he’ll probably have some use in some form for a team regardless (like at worst he could make a living as a special-teamer, probably).
Jones will probably go higher and DGB will probably go lower, but I’m also trying to rank the prospects by quality, not by what I think will happen in the draft. DGB is just too absurdly talented to rank lower, though the off-field problems are likely to drop him to day 2. I mean, there are not a lot of great prospects in this draft– multiple sources I’ve heard identify about 16-18 guys with “first round” grades.
Not especially confident on our Goldman opinion yet as I haven’t seen much film on him.
yeah I know about 3 cone as the only real combine metric with actual predictive value and I’m sure the NFL does too. (harold vs ray) It’s ugly I know but even despite that difference i still wouldn’t put harold above. *shrugs* Metric wise apparently 2nd-5th in EDGE doesn’t really spit out much of a difference draft wise at least historically. (though I suspect the NFL didn’t bother using 3 cone as any sort of meaningful statistic till recently)