Week 6 Embarrassment Predictions
1/6 last week following 4/11 in week 4. Let’s see how poorly I can do this week, where I will introduce teaser picks. I think there is a lot of value in adding a few points to either side of a bet even if you have to hit on more picks at worse odds. I’m also not feeling the standard lines this week (due to poor performance and plain toughness) so apologies for fewer straight up line picks.
Steelers @ Raiders 4:05 pm: I like what I’ve seen from Terrelle Pryor this year, and I think the Raiders might indeed have their QB of the future. That said, the Steelers are better than a 2-4 record might indicate. Their defense may have forced only 2 turnovers so far this year, but they’ve also allowed less than 300 yards in 4 out of 6 games. Their pass defense has been stout, and run defense pretty solid too allowing just 3.7 yards per carry. While Pryor should be able to create some offense, it seems likely that the Stealers defense should limit the Raiders to a reasonable range of 20 points or less. On the other side of it, the Steelers run game has looked quite a bit better since Leveon Bell has returned from injury, and Roethlisberger is still playing well enough to win even if this offense is no longer a juggernaut. Feel free to tease this with any of the below picks for the same reasons. F.O. Ranks; Offense – PIT(16) OAK(20), Defense – PIT(22) OAK(21)
Recommended Line: Stealers -1
Browns @ Chiefs: Both these teams feature weak offenses and strong defenses. The Chiefs are stronger on both sides, but still it seems hard to expect many touchdowns. The line has moved down from 40 to 38.5, but winning on the key number of 38 is still nice for what should be a defensive battle.
Recommended line: Under 38.5 In case you’re feeling tentative with respect to my recent run of lol picks, feel free to tease it up to 44 to 45, and the Chiefs down to -2.5 to 3.
Teaser recommendations: While many people like to swing lots of these together in a large parlay for nice odds, I think going for just a pair is the way to go for up to -150 odds. Ideally you should be able to get at least -135, and up to as good as -110 if you are only teasing 4 points.
Seahawks -11 down to -4: getting the number 4 instead of 4.5 is key while you can. The Seahawks would crush the Rams normally, now without Bradford? This game has the potential to be the ugliest, least competitive MNF game of the year.
Jets @ Bengals, Under 41.5 down to 47 to 48.5: These are two of the best defenses in the NFL vs. two of the more mediocre offenses. Both offenses should struggle to move the ball, and seeing more than one team score 20+ points would be pretty surprising.
Bills @ Saints, Under 48 down to 53 to 56: Surprising to see the line this high. The Bills defense has played very well under Mike Pettine this year, and is finally getting healthy. Jimmy Graham is a game time decision and is no guarantee to play. The Saints defense shouldn’t have too much trouble matching up with a Bills offense that has CJ Spiller doubtful to play and not much firepower elsewhere. There will definitely be a decent amount of points scored in this game, but touchdowns will not be as easy to come by as this line indicates.
Packers -9.5 @ Vikings down to Packers -2.5 to 3: Harrison Smith is out for the season, leaving Rodgers free to terrorize this weak secondary. The Vikings defense has struggled all year with only one playmaker in Jared Allen; even the NYG’s were able to move the ball well last week. On the other side we have Christian Ponder who will be returning to action and is probably a slight improvement over Josh Freeman, but unless Peterson is able to get going against a suddenly stout Packers run defense, the Vikings have no chance in this game. The Packers should cover a field goal no problem.
Falcons @ Cardinals Under 46.5, down to 53 to 53.5: While the Falcons can definitely pass the ball, they are not that threatening without their star receivers. Against a good defense that will actually play more man coverage instead of the old school bend but dont break zone (lol Bucs, nice usage of Revis), they should be fairly limited. On the other side the Cardinals have struggled on offense all year scoring just 19 points per game, teasing the under here seems like a solid play.